Updated: Saturday morning 24th November (Local Time)
Contest Event Window: 23rd November to 2nd December 2018
Brief Overview: Good ENE swell combined with a southerly pulse for the next few days, with wave heights peaking around Sunday-Monday. After that, the swell becomes less solid but conditions remain contestable throughout.
SAT 24th: Surf: 4 to 6, perhaps 6 ft+; Wind: NE 15 to 20 mph
SWELL: Average to good quality ENE swell, with smaller, longer-period S swell combining from around midday onwards
WIND: Moderate NE, gusting fresh from about mid-afternoon onwards
SUN 25th: Surf: 6 or 7 perhaps 8 ft+ later; Wind: N 15 to 30 mph
SWELL: Good-quality ENE swell combined with smaller S swell, wave heights gradually increasing during the day
WIND: Moderate N, gusting fresh or strong at times
MON 26th: Surf: 4 to 6 ft; Wind: NNE 15 to 25 mph
SWELL: ENE swell persists; S swell disappears by about midday
WIND: Moderate to fresh NNE
TUES 27th: Surf: 4 to 6 ft; Wind: N 10 to 20 mph
SWELL: Main swell swings E, dropping slightly by afternoon, combined with short-period residual N swell
WIND: light to moderate N, perhaps gusting fresh
WED 28th: Surf: 3 to 4 ft; Wind: NNE 10 to 15 then 10 mph
SWELL: Average to poor quality E swell, gradually dropping
WIND: Light NNE, gusting moderate around the middle of the day
ANALYSIS
The current chart shows Tropical Storm Usagi off the coast of Vietnam and Typhoon Man-Yi east of the Philippines. An easterly airstream between these systems and high pressure to the north is continuing to push some east or northeast swell towards the contest area. A brief pulse of south swell is also about to arrive, which was generated by TS Usagi.
Over the next few days, Usagi disappears westwards and Man-Yi moves northwest and then swing off east, steadily weakening as it goes. A band of low pressure between the two tropical systems and high pressure to the north strengthens that easterly airstream, generating a pulse of larger surf for around Sunday and Monday. Wave heights then begin to decrease over the next few days as pressure gradients weaken.
Local winds will be from the northeast or north, moderate gusting fresh for the first few days, then decreasing light or moderate.
Forecast confidence is good until around Thursday or Friday, as the situation remains relatively stable.
Longer-term prospects are for a continuation of average-quality, small to medium surf, with the possibility of a larger pulse next weekend. Confidence is still quite low this far ahead, so please follow updates.
Next Update: By Monday morning 26th November (local time)